Progress of Cryogenics and Isotopes Separation , ISSN: 1582-2575
2000, Volume 3, Issue 5+6

The Role of Expert Judgement in Risk Assessment of Complex Plant

Abstract

Risk represents the possibility(probability) to overtake into danger or possible danger. There is risk in every action or activity performed by the man.
No matter how rigorous would be the risk assessment method, the input data are predominant subjective, being estimated, gathered and introduced in system by human, and final decision is purely subjective. The subjectivism prevails, and the looseness as subjective uncertainty gives the fuzzy nature of assessment.
In paper it propose a risk assessment method for technological operations, using the fuzzy sets theory, through it quantity the subjectivism, using the fuzzy sets theory, through it quantify the subjectivism and the way of risk perception. For applying and making a useful working instrument, it developed a software system for the method.
The risk assessment method includes: the selection of decision group, the objective establishing and delimitation, the establishing of estimating criterions and of typical evaluation factors, the subjective assessment of achievement degree for any criterion with fuzzy variables, the processing of data with a fuzzy mathematical model, the conclusions regarding the potential danger, the managerial solutions.
The expert group, appealing to own experience and information holding by each, analyze for any operation: what can happen, what consequences appear if the event is happened.